Until recently, the comparatively small nation of Guyana didn't make global news particularly often. What was reported was generally a good news story - With oil discoveries and growing production driving rapid economic growth in the historically poor nation.

Now the nation is in the global spotlight as with the escalation of a centuries old territorial dispute, and neighbouring Venezuela asserting an intention to incorporate more than two thirds of Guyana's current territory into Venezuela.

Is the move simply domestically focused theatre, an attempt to pressure Guyana and the USA, or the prelude to a South American take on the 'Special Military Operation?' In this episode we discuss the nations involved, their motivations, resources, and try to ask why this is happening, and what may come next.

One note: I want to feature up here I refer to Russia as an OPEC member as shorthand in this video. They are more accurately described as a member of OPEC+ .

Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU

Relevant Reading/sourcing (to be expanded)

On the 1899 Arbitration
Awardhttps://legal.un.org/riaa/cases/vol_XXVIII/331-340.pdf

1966 Agreement to Resolve the Controversy over the Frontier between Venezuela and British Guiana (Geneva Agreement)
https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/GB-VE_660217_Agreement%20to%20Resolve%20Controversy%20over%20Frontier%20British%20Guiana.pdf

Relevant ICJ releases and hearing records:
https://www.icj-cij.org/case/171

ICJ Order of 1 December 2023
https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/171/171-20231201-ord-01-00-en.pdf

IMF Profile: Guyana
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/GUY

IMF Profile: Venezuela
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/VEN

Featured Reports:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/06/venezuela-annex-guyana-maduro

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/06/americas/venezuelas-president-orders-creation-of-new-state-and-map-including-land-from-guyana/index.html

https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-guyana-essequibo-territory-dispute-maduro-referendum-d956cc4d5d2a70e3a1e762b744e397de

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-05/venezuela-s-maduro-to-grant-mineral-oil-licenses-in-essequibo?embedded-checkout=true

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-06/venezuelan-national-guardsmen-have-been-deserting-in-big-numbers?embedded-checkout=true

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/offshore-discoveries-turn-tiny-guyana-into-oil-hotspot-2023-10-23/

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exxon-proposes-sixth-oil-project-guyana-129-billion-2023-08-21/

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/guyana-says-another-significant-discovery-made-stabroek-offshore-block-2023-10-26/

Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.

In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Venezuela & Guyana
00:01:28 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:34 — Venezuela
00:07:36 — Guyana
00:15:35 — Essequibo & Escalation
00:24:55 — Venezuela's Military
00:36:47 — Readiness, Manpower & Corruption
00:41:29 — Guyana's Military
00:43:30 — A Venezuelan Special Military Operation?
00:51:21 — Regional Actors
00:58:13 — A Risky Throw Of The Dice?
01:04:37 — Conclusion
01:05:36 — Channel Update